Morphodynamic modelling
The relationship between long- and short-term sea level rise and beach retreat (erosion) is assessed, mostly through the development/application of parametric (e.g. Bruun, 1988) and/or process-response models (e.g Leont’yev, 1996). The principal advantage of the former models, most of which are based on the principle of the ‘equilibrium profile’ (e.g. Zhang et al., 2004), is their simplicity; however, they cannot describe very successfully beach morphodynamics associated with high frequency events and/or longshore sediment transport. Process-response models are based on the coupling of hydro- and sediment dynamic numerical models, using either linear wave theory (e.g. Leont’yev, 1996), or, non linear Boussinesq type equations (e.g. Vousdoukas et al., 2009a), with the latter being able to simulate more effectively beach sediment transport and morphodynamics (Κarambas and Karathanassi, 2004). Within the framework of the ISLA project, a ‘pool’ of both parametric and process-response morphodynamic models will be created (WP-3.1), from which suitable model ensembles will be formed to simulate long- and short-term beach retreats and assess their range under different morphological (beach slopes), sedimentological and hydrodynamic conditions (Velegrakis et al., 2009) and realistic scenaria of mean sea level rises and/or storm surges (WP-3.2). This approach is based on the idea that, as different models have differential sensitivity to the controlling factors, their common (ensemble) application is likely to provide more realistic prediction ranges; the aim of the exercise is not to replace detailed modeling studies, but to provide realistic ranges of beach retreats. The estimated ranges will be then combined with the spatial characteristics of the Aegean island beaches (WP-2.1) (e.g. beach width maxima), in order to predict retreats for each of the beaches of the Aegean island beach database and assess their vulnerability (WP-3.3). The short-term predictions of the models will be validated through high frequency hydrodynamic/morphodynamic observations at the case study beaches.
Includes the following Tasks and its Deliverables (D):
- 3.1 Development of inventory of morphodynamic models
- D-12. Morphodynamic model base (technical Report)
- 3.2 Model Ensembles
- D-13. Model ensembles (technical Report)
- 3.3 Coastal retreat forecasts
- D-14. Coastal retreat forecasts (technical Report)
Sea level rise due to climatic change and coastal erosion correlation
